I have been thinking this over a lot lately and have finally decided that Albert Pujols is someone you should pass on in your fantasy drafts. Here are two reasons why:
1. The injury.
- Albert Pujols is going to be going from three to five innings to nine innings everyday, with at least three at bats rather than five. There is going to be a lot more stress on his elbow that could lead to season ending surgery. One collision at first or one inside pitch and he is done. However, he is still hitting the ball very well and will be a force, to some extent.
2. Pitching coaches are not dumb.
- Albert Pujols is going to lead the league in walks. There is no one in the lineup offering protection for him. Is Rick Ankiel going to be that guy, probably not. Is Troy Glaus going to step up and be a power hitter again? Hah, no. If I was pitching against the Cardinals, I would throw everything away, away, and away to Pujols. Let him take first base, because nine times out of ten he won't come around to score.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
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3 comments:
Um...what?
So he could hurt himself but he will be a force.
He's going to lead the league in walks, something he's never finished higher than sixth in, but he's also going to try to take matters into his own hands, thereby hurting the team.
Last year, Rolen, Edmonds and Encarnacion were the most common people to hit behind him. All were bad at baseball-type things. With that, Pujols walked 99 times. I think Glaus, Ankiel and Duncan - in the very least - have the potential to match the previous trio's crappy performance and - at the most - have loads more upside.
And I'm not even a Cardinals fan.
I disagree with the guy above. I like your stats, but he is right. No one will pitch to him, leading him to take advantage of every mistake possible. I really think he is going to be going for the fences when he realizes no one will pitch to him.
Good stuff. I also nominate Miguel Cabrera as a big-time potential bust this year. I know it sounds crazy, and I'm not going to slam Miggy or anything like that, but I don't think his value is as high as people think it is from a fantasy league perspective. I think there are some red flags here that say Cabrera is not going to have a year even close to what he did in Florida:
1. He went from a tam that routinely had 500 fans at its games and people having sex in the stands to a team that is the overwhelming World Series favorite. He will be more scrutinized in April and May in Detroit than he ever was in all of his years in Florida combined.
2. He's a foreigner from some shanty town in South American and he just signed a 7-year, $152 mil. contract. Kind of tough to keep the motivation and there's no way there won't be a dropoff in production. Or as I like to call it: the Adrian Beltre Effect. (No way Andruw Jones doesn't hit .250 this year also; see: Beltre Effect.)
3. He's going from the N.L. to the A.L. Which would be like going from the Sun Belt to the SEC.
4. Call me crazy, but I think he may see a dip in production playing in that lineup. With so many other big bats around him there are actually other people to drive in runs, etc., that he could actually lose a few opportunities. Sounds weird, but I think it could happen.
Like I said, he's the man. And he sure as hell is better than what I have at 3B. But you can't say that the guy isn't a decent-sized gamble right now. It's not as if we haven't seen dozens of guys get lost in the shuffle after changing leagues or after signing a monster contract. Just my two cents.
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